Every year it comes to this – eventually the Formula One drivers’ championship is decided by numbers and the business of who needs what to finish where.
This year it’s more complex than ever. Red Bull Racing team boss Christian Horner claims it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it all out – but we wouldn’t say no. It’s enough to make a professor of algebra curl up into a ball and sob gently – but people in F1 are made of sterner stuff.
Red Bull Racing opted to allow Sebastian Vettel to stay in front in Brazil, improving his chances but weakening the still-better championship credentials of Mark Webber, though most commentators agreed that this was fair considering the German’s recent performances and realistic chances of championship glory. The question everyone wanted answered was, will the strategy be any different in Abu Dhabi? And how did Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso rate his own chances?
“We will see where we qualify, because up to that point we are both trying to get everything out of the car,” said Vettel. “In my case, it is pretty straightforward. The only thing I can do is optimise my result, get everything out of myself… obviously it depends where those two guys [Alonso and Webber] are. For sure, you will have to judge according to the situation. I think both of us [Vettel and Webber] know how to act. We’ve had some moments which were not representative and which we’re not very proud of, and we don’t want to repeat that. So full stop.”
“To cut a long story short, I think it depends on how it is on the last lap,” said Webber in typically straightforward fashion.
Meanwhile, for Alonso, the situation is now very simple…
“I’m one hundred per cent confident! I just need to finish second – because it doesn’t matter who wins in Abu Dhabi so long as I am second,” said the Spaniard. “So, the main goal for us is to be on pole on Saturday, and to win the race on Sunday. If we cannot do that, because we are not quick enough, we’ll try to be second. And with that the problem is finished. We know what we have to do and taking the title depends on us.”
Probable scenarios
So, what are the most likely 'permutations'?
- If Alonso wins or is second, he becomes a three-times world champion
- If Webber wins and Alonso is no better than third, Webber becomes world champion
- If Vettel wins and Alonso is no better than fifth, Vettel is world champion
- If Lewis Hamilton wins, and Alonso fails to score, Webber finishes no better than sixth and Vettel no better than third, Hamilton is a double world champion.
Countback
In the entirely plausible eventuality of a dead heat (ie more than one driver on identical points), the championship will go to the driver with the superior finishes over the season:
- If Webber and Alonso finish level on points, Alonso is ahead with more wins
- If Vettel wins and finishes level on points with Alonso, Vettel will be ahead by one extra fourth place
- If Vettel doesn’t win but finishes level on points with Alonso, Alonso will be champion with one extra victory
- If Hamilton is level on points with Alonso, Alonso is champion with more wins
- If Vettel wins and finishes level on points with Webber, Vettel is world champion by virtue of having one extra victory
- If Vettel and Webber finish level on points but Vettel doesn’t win, Webber will be champion thanks to having more second-placed finishes.
The wildcards
Imagine if all the contenders have bad days. This doesn’t usually happen, but title deciders have a way of throwing out funny results. Assume a good day for McLaren or Renault, a DNF or a late puncture, and then really anything could happen…
Want more?
- Look ahead to the exciting showdown in Abu Dhabi at our event page
- Hear what all the key drivers had to say after the Brazil race unfolded
- Read the latest blogs from Sebastian Vettel here and Mark Webber here
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